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Guerre en Europe

Le Président russe Vladimir Poutine prévoit une guerre en Europe. Il s’agit d’un commentaire d’un confident de Poutine dans le cadre de la décision d’Ioukos. Les américains spéculent déjà sur le renversement de M. Poutine. Le Ministre allemand des affaires étrangères Steinmeier voit menacée la paix en Europe. Le rouble est à nouveau sous pression.

http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2014/07/29/putin-vertrauer-es-wird-krieg-in-europa-geben/

À Moscou, le pessimisme se répand : un confident de Poutine pour la première fois mentionne explicitement la possibilité d’une guerre en Europe. (Photo : dpa)

Les Russes ont pris acte du verdict contre la nationalisation du groupe pétrolier d’Ioukos avec une indifférence évidente. La raison pourrait être que l’on estime à Moscou, que les relations avec l’Occident sont déjà en panne.

Pour la première fois, un fonctionnaire russe a mentionné dans ce contexte un conflit militaire en Europe comme une possibilité.

Le Financial Times a rapporté :

« Un confident de Poutine a déclaré que le jugement d’Ioukos à la seule lumière du conflit géopolitique ukrainien n’est déjà plus pertinent: «il y aura une guerre en Europe. « Vous pensez vraiment que cet épisode joue encore un rôle? »

Il convient de noter que cette citation est dans un discours direct. Ce qui suggère, que Poutine est sûr, que trouver un accord entre la Russie et l’Occident n’est plus possible.

Les américains semblent supposer que la possibilité d’une guerre en Europe pourrait conduire à un coup d’État contre Poutine. Ils cherchent clairement la fin de l’ère Poutine .Comme l’ Intelligence Agence STRATFOR privée a analysé la situation de Poutine il y a seulement quelques jours et en est venu à la conclusion que Poutine pourrait avoir dépassé son zénith (« Est-ce que Poutine peut survivre? »).

Apparemment le consultant de la Gazprom Gerhard Schröder au Kremlin a aussi obtenu du ministre des affaires étrangères allemand Frank-Walter Steinmeier des signaux semblables : il a dit dans une interview avec Der Spiegel, que la paix en Europe est en péril. Le développement en Ukraine pourrait conduire à des conséquences imprévisibles « pour l’Europe », a-t-il déclaré.

Dans ce contexte, la monnaie russe a poursuivi sa descente. Le dollar a progressé jusqu’à 0,5 % à un maximum de trois mois de 35,7045 roubles. Les indices de blue chips de la bourse de Moscou sont, cependant, presque stables.

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