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هذه أسباب القتال في الشمال السوري

جورج مالبرونو

في سوريا، تتجه كل الأنظار اليوم إلى المناطق الشمالية، من محافظة إدلب في الشمال الغربي، مرورا بمدينة عفرين، وانتهاء بالمناطق التي يسيطر عليها الأكراد والواقعة إلى الشرق في الصحراء المحاذية للفرات.

فهذه هي المناطق التي يتفاوض المنتصرون الروس والإيرانيون والأتراك بشأن مصيرها، ويسعى كل واحد منهم إلى وضع أكبر جزء منها ضمن منطقة نفوذه، وفق ما أوردت شبكة “الجزيرة”.

هذه المناطق هي نفسها التي يودّ الخاسرون وخصوصا الأميركيين والفرنسيين الإبقاء على موضع قدم فيها.

وفي هذا الإطار، يقول دبلوماسي في الأمم المتحدة يتابع الصراع السوري عن كثب: “في الشمال، شهدت مناطق النفوذ القديمة تغيرات مع التدخل العسكري التركي الأخير في عفرين، مما يستدعي إجراء تعديلات وتخطيطا للمستقبل، سيتضح أكثر من خلال ما سيفعله الأتراك والإيرانيون والروس في منبج.

ويتساءل المسؤول الأممي عن الكيفية التي سيدير بها هؤلاء مدينة تل رفعت، مضيفا أن مخططات هذه الدول وتفاهُماتها لا يمكن أن تغفل طموحات نظام بشار الأسد، إذ إنه بعد سيطرته على الغوطة الشرقية متعطش لتوسيع سيادته في مناطق أخرى.

فبالنّسبة لمنبج، فإن الأميركيين والأتراك استأنفوا مفاوضاتهم للتوصل لقرار بشأن هذه المدينة التي تسكنها أغلبية عربية ويديرها الأكراد، مشيرا إلى أن وزارة الدفاع الأميركية، وخصوصا القيادة المركزية، تعترض على أي صفقة تنتهي بالتخلي عن الأكراد الذين يرون فيهم الحلقة الأقوى في مكافحة تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية.

من غير المتوقع أن يستمر التعاون التركي الروسي شرقي الفرات إلا في حالة تمكن أنقرة من إبرام صفقة مع واشنطن بشأن الأكراد، وإلا فلا يستبعد أن تكون هناك مواجهات بين دول أعضاء في حلف شمال الأطلسي. ذلك  أن دخول المليشيات الشيعية العراقية إلى الشرق السوري يقوي المحور الإيراني الذي تعهدت واشنطن بتحجيمِه.

ويبدو أن السعوديين وقعوا في فخ الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترمب عندما طلبوا منه الإبقاء على قواته في سوريا، إذ كان رد ترمب بأن الشرط في ذلك هو أن تتولى الرياض تمويل استمرار وجود تلك القوات في سوريا.

أما إيران، فإنها نأت بنفسها عن القتال في الغوطة، كما أظهرت الحياد في مواجهة الهجوم التركي على عفرين، ويود الأتراك والروس أن يستمر هذا التوجه الإيراني خصوصا جنوب حلب حيث نشرت أنقرة قواتها وتحتاج للحد من وجود إيران وحليفها حزب الله.

في سياق متصل، يقول الأمين العام لحزب التضامن السوري، الدكتور عماد الدين الخطيب، إن تركيا لن تتخلى عن موقفها بشأن الشمال السوري، لأن غض الطرف عما يحاك على حدودها الجنوبية مع سوريا سوف ينعكس على وضعها الداخلي ووحدة أراضيها.

ويعتقد الخطيب بأن الولايات المتحدة لا يمكن أن تضحي بثاني قوة حليفة لها في حلف الناتو إرضاء للأكراد في شمال سوريا الذين تحاول استغلالهم لمصالحها وسوف تخذلهم في لحظة ما، كما فعلت مع إقليم كردستان العراق بعد إجراء استفتاء الاستقلال.

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