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全球化游戏规则因疫情而改变 企业回流成趋势

Hsiao-Ying Tsai
武汉肺炎疫情冲击全球经济供应链,也暴露了各国过度依赖中国的致命危害,更加深了国际对中国的不信任,多国政府祭出“去中国化”对策,打算撤商或阻止中国趁乱入股国内企业。从亚洲的日本到美洲的美国以及欧洲的欧盟国家,製造业离开中国、回流母国开始成为趋势

日本经济产业省推出经济纾困方案,编列“供应链改革”预算,协助日企回流,或是将产线移往其他国家,17日公布,首批符合资助迁离中国内地的日本企业名单共计57宗,补助总金额将为6.53亿美元,其中包括生产口罩与消毒用品的厂商爱丽思欧雅马(Iris Ohyama)、酒精类清洁用品製造商Saraya和鸿海旗下的夏普(Sharp)等

美国为让企业从中国回流,提出“100%替企业回流成本买单”策略,为想从中国回流的美企支付搬家费,从厂房、设备到智慧财产、装修,将回流支出百分之百直接费用化,为美企搬回国的成本买单,盼能进一步与中国脱钩。不过.製造业集中高科技、航空、生化和军工产业的美国,一般製造业空洞化,加上劳工和环保法规严格、各方面成本高,使製造业回流缺乏竞争力,尤其市场经济下,企业从经济效益考量布局,政府难强制所有海外企业回国,也不可能提供足够补偿来帮助转场,扭曲市场机制。根据顾问公司科尔尼(Kearney) 的统计,中国是美企鲑鱼返乡的最大损失国,而中国的损失,在亚洲大量被越南取代,在美国则被墨西哥取代

欧盟商会主席伍德克指出,许多在中国经营的中小企业已濒临破产;疫情的爆發为跨国企业上了一课,市场不可预测性可能导致一些公司从单一布局,转向更广泛地区的多元化经营。欧盟竞争专员维斯塔格(Margrethe Vestager)也呼吁,各国政府应该加强投资有战略价值的企业,以阻止中国趁疫情之乱低价入股。从中期看,众多产业不一定要重新建立供应链,但会使供应链更加多元,而为降低生产成本,欧商回流将以东欧国家为首选

法国经济部长勒麦尔(Bruno Le Maire)更直言,疫情是全球化“游戏规则的改变者”,凸显了各国对中国的不负责任和非理性依赖,尤其在医药健康领域和汽车製造业,必须重新审视全球供应关係,他强调 :“我们不能在药物材料方面继续让自己对中国有八十%至八十五%的依赖”,并在7月8日重申 “再工业化是重中之重,企业回迁是重中之重” 。他呼吁雷诺(Renault)等法国汽车製造商,在向政府申请金援度过难关的同时,有必要考虑将生产线移回母国

9日普华永道(PricewaterhouseCoopers,简称PwC)国际会计师事务所公布了一项针对战略采购回归本土的研究报告,对医药健康、农业食品、电气和工业制造四个产业的生产消费链进行研究分析,甄别出113类“敏感”产品,该研究项目得到了法国国家采购委员会的支持

全球的疫情加剧,成为美中经济脱钩和“反全球化”新动力,更多的社会压力要求部分战略领域搬迁如医疗供应或其他医疗保健需求,并确保自给自足,製造业也面临侧重多元化生产基地、工业数码化及自动化,欧洲与美国的跨国企业若确认产业链脱钩的战略目标,新的採购政策将会彻底改变既有的产业架构

虽说供应链更加多元,企业回流也将成趋势,但要企业完全撤离中国这个世界工厂,恐怕还有多方考量。美国商会会长托马斯就指出,借武汉肺炎疫情将供应链迁出中国的努力可能损害美国自身的经济,何况古有明训,商人无祖国

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