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مادا يمكن أن يفعل بوتين؟

باريس – حامد دبوس

في البداية سربت وسائل الإعلام أخباراً مفادها أن روسيا تسعى لاحتلال «كامل التراب الأوكراني» وبالتالي سادت مخاوف من أن تحقق روسيا انتصاراً سريعاً ويفسر هذا تعاقب سلسلة العقوبات الاقتصادية والمالية الشديدة التي فرضها الغرب . أعقب ذلك التشديد على المقاومة الأوكرانية وتسليط الضوء على الانسحاب الروسي من محيط العاصمة فيما كانت روسيا تركز هجومها على الشرق الذي هو في الواقع هدفها الأول.
والآن دخلت الحرب روتينا كارثياً دراماتيكيا مع مع ما تجره الحروب من مآسي وخراب. من هنا طرح السؤال ما هي توجهات هذه الحرب في المستقبل القريب أم المتوسط أم البعيد ؟
من الاحتمالات المتوقعة حرب الاستنزاف قد تستمر لشهور إن لم يكن سنوات وتخوض خلالها القوات الروسية والأوكرانية مناورات كر وفر قبل أن تتحول إلى حرب خنادق وتراشق مدفعي طول الخطوط التي وصلتها القوات الروسية. ويحقق كلا الجانبين مكاسب أحياناً ويمنيان بخسائر أحيانا أخرى. وفي هذه الحالة يمكن القول إن الصبر الاستراتيجي لروسيا والمراهنة على أن الدول الغربية ستشعر بالإرهاق من دعم أوكرانيا ماليا وبالسلاح، يمكن أن يصور هذا السيناريو للمراقبين أنه شكل من انتصار روسي شبيه بما حصل في شبه جزيرة القرم والتراشق في دوماس الذي يدوم منذ عام ٢٠١٤.
ولكن أوروبا رغم أزماتها الاقتصادية والتهديد الصيني الذي تلوح به اميركا ومنافستها الصناعية مع آسيا، قد تستمر بدعم كييف وتواصل تزويد أوكرانيا بالأسلحة. وتنشأ خطوط معركة شبه ثابتة وتتحول الحرب الى صراع دائم بوتيرة منخفضة.
ولكن قد يفاجئ فلاديمير بوتين العالم بإعلان وقف لإطلاق النار من طرف واحد مكتفياً بوضع يده على منطقة الدومباس ويقدمه لشعبه على أنه نصرة للناطقين بالروسية المضطهدين وبالتالي يعلن بعد حين «النصر» على ما يسميه «النازيين الجدد» ويكون قد حصد مكاسب على الأرض بوضع يده على ممر بري يشكل إلى شبه جزيرة القرم، ويمكنه بعد ذلك السعي لكسب مواقف ديبلوماسية والضغط على أوكرانيا لوقف القتال.
يوجد بالفعل بين باريس وبرلين وروما محاولة للذهاب في هذا الاتجاه وهي دعوة من أجل التوصل إلى وقف إطلاق النار والتفاوض على استرجاع بعض من الأراض التي تتجاوز حدود الدومباس الجغرافية.
وتعارض الولايات المتحدة والمملكة المتحدة وبالطبع دول أوروبا الشرقية هذا التوجه الذي تقوده أكبر ثلاث اقتصاديات في الاتحاد الأوروبي والأكثر تضرراً اقتصاديا من هذه الحرب.
ولا يتردد معارضو وقف إطلاق النار من الترويج لإمكانية أن تخالف أوكرانيا كل التوقعات وتحقق ما يمكن وصفه بنصرٍ وأن تستطيع إجبار القوات الروسية على الانسحاب إلى المواقع التي كانت تنتشر فيها قبل ٢٤ شباط/فبراير أي قبل بدء الغزو الروسي.
وهو ما يردده فولوديمير زيلينسكي « إن أوكرانيا ستنتصر بالتأكيد في هذه الحرب».
في هذه الحالة يمكن لبوتين في حال تراكمت خسائره أن يبرر هذا «التراجع» بـ«انتهاء المهمة» . ولكن هكذا احتمال يثير القلق نظراً لعواقبه إذا أن بوتين في حال واجه نوع من الهزيمة العسكرية أو تململاً في قاعدته الشعبية قد يكون في موقف محرج وقد يلجأ لاستعمال سلاح نووي تكتيكي أو بعض الأسلحة الكيميائية .

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