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النفط الإيراني

يوفر الاتفاق حول الملف النووي الايراني الذي يشمل رفعا للعقوبات المفروضة على البلد، فرصة لشركات النفط الاجنبية، لن تتاح قبل اشهر، بل سنوات، وفقط بشرط ان تكون شروط العقود المطروحة مثيرة للاهتمام.

واشار محلل في هذا القطاع ان الاتفاق الاطار المبرم الخميس”قد يشكل مرحلة اولى نحو عودة الشركات الغربية” الى ايران.

وادت العقوبات الدولية المفروضة على ايران من طرف الولايات المتحدة منذ 1979 ثم الامم المتحدة والاتحاد الاوروبي منذ 2006 الى مغادرة تدريجية للشركات النفطية الكبرى للبلاد، اخرها الفرنسية توتال في 2008. ولكن لا تزال شركات صينية وهندية تعمل فيها.

ويطرح رفع هذه العقوبات فرصا نادرة، نظرا الى ان ايران ما زالت اليوم خامس اكبر منتج للنفط في منظمة الدول المصدرة للنفط (اوبك) بالرغم من العقوبات، وبلغ انتاجها معدل 2,81 مليون برميل في اليوم في 2014 (مقابل 4 في 2008) وصادراتها حوالى 1,1 مليون برميل في اليوم. على صعيد الغاز تملك ايران ثاني اهم احتياطي في العالم بعد روسيا.

واشار رئيس مجموعة المنشورات المتخصصة “استراتيجيات وسياسات الطاقة” فرانسيس بيران ان “ايران تملك امكانات كبرى من النفط والغاز. قليلة هي الدول التي تملك الاثنين معا”. لكن عودة الشركات، ان حصلت، فلن تبدأ قبل اشهر بحسب مدير مجلة “بتروستراتيجي” بيار تيرزيان.

يعود ذلك اولا “الى ان الاتفاق هو اتفاق سياسي على مبادئ عريضة. ما زال ينبغي الاتفاق على التفاصيل التقنية والتوصل الى اتفاق نهائي” حتى 30 حزيران/يونيو، بحسبه.

بالاضافة الى ذلك ووفق ما ذكر وزير الخارجية الفرنسي لوران فابيوس الجمعة، لم يتم الاتفاق على الجدول الزمني لرفع العقوبات الاقتصادية الذي طالبت طهران بان يحصل على الفور.

وبعد رفع العقوبات، على ايران تسويق مخزون النفط المتراكم لديها. ثم يمكنها “قبل نهاية اعلام زيادة الانتاج الى مستويات مرتفعة” بحسب الاقتصادي في مركز ابحاث اي بي اف للطاقات الجديدة، غي ميزونييه، متحدثا عن 3,4 الى 3,6 ملايين برميل في اليوم التي كانت البلاد تنتجها في 2012.

وهذه الزيادة مرهونة بوضع منشآت استخراج وتكرير النفط الايرانية، نتيجة انقطاع تكنولوجيات الشركات الغربية عن البلاد طوال سنوات وتعذر الحصول على قطع الغيار.

وليس سرا ان ايران تريد دعوة الشركات الاجنبية. ففي 2014 في منتدى دافوس الاقتصادي دعا الرئيس الايراني حسن روحاني الغربيين الى العودة الى بلاده للاستثمار في قطاع الطاقة.

لكن اهتمام هؤلاء مرهون الى حد كبير بالشروط التي تبنى عليها العقود الجديدة.

واوضح برتران هودي المحلل المتخصص في الطاقة في مكتب استشاريي الاستثمار ريمون جيمس ان “عودة الشركات الى ايران تعتمد على كون الشروط الضريبية للعقود جذابة، ما كان مفقودا قبل العقوبات. فنظام “اعادة الشراء” الايراني اي توفير خدمات لفترة محدودة تتقاضى الشركات خلالها بدلا عن الاستثمارات التي تجريها في المنشآت، كان يحمل مخاطر كبيرة للشركات الدولية.

وفيما اغلبية العقود النفطية في العالم هي عقود امتياز او تشاطر الانتاج، تفضل ايران عقود “اعادة الشراء” وتحصر الانتاج بشركة النفط الوطنية.

واكد بيران ان “ايران مدركة لذلك ولا سيما وزارة النفط الايرانية وتعمل منذ فترة على نموذج جديد لعقود النفط، هو +عقد النفط الايراني+” الذي يفترض ان يضاعف تحفيز المجموعات الاجنبية على العودة.

واضاف لان البلاد “تريد التعاون مع افضلها”.

وفيما قد يؤدي الغياب المطول لكبرى الشركات الاميركية الى تعقيد عودتها، تملك الشركات النفطية الاوروبية على غرار توتال وايني وشيل ورقة رابحة يمكنها استغلالها، ولا سيما ان ايران، بحسب بيران “ليست راضية تماما” عن اداء المشغلين الاسيويين العاملين حاليا على اراضيها.

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