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نهاية الممانعة

نجاة شرف الدين

شكلت العملية التي تعرض لها أربعة من كبار قادة الامن والعسكر في النظام السوري، في مبنى الامن القومي في دمشق يوم الأربعاء الماضي، نقطة تحول في المشهد الداخلي والخارجي ، وأطلقت التحليلات في الصحافة الغربية والعربية حول مستقبل سوريا إنطلاقا من ان المرحلة المقبلة ستكون بالضرورة مختلفة عما قبلها .
العملية ونوعيتها وأهميتها، بالزمان والمكان، واستهدافها لأربعة جنرالات، وعلى رأسهم صهر الرئيس السوري آصف شوكت، إضافة الى رئيس الامن القومي هشام أختيار، ووزير الدفاع داوود راجحة ورئيس الأركان حسن تركماني، كان من المنتظر، وبحسب التحليلات العربية ، أن تؤدي الى تسريع وتيرة إنهيار النظام ، لا بل الى إنهياره بالفعل ، خاصة أنها جرت في قلب العاصمة دمشق وفي عقر دار الجهاز الامني ، وسبقتها عملية إنشقاق العماد مناف طلاس ومغادرته سوريا ووصوله الى باريس  ، كما تزامنت مع معارك في أحياء الشام ،  كل هذه التطورات كان من المفترض أن تكسر الجيش معنويا ، وبالتالي يمكن أن تسرع في الانشقاقات ، ويسقط النظام كحجارة الدومينو الواحد تلو الآخر .
مما لا شك فيه ، أن ما حدث ، وبحسب التحليلات الغربية ، شكل ضربة موجعة ومباشرة وقاسمة خاصة بالنسبة لعائلة  الاسد  ، عبر استهداف آصف شوكت ، الذي يعتبر العقل الامني الأقرب الى بشار الاسد ، إلا ان بعض السيناريوهات التي ذكرها الاعلام الغربي ، ذهبت الى اعتبار ان النظام سيزيد من عملياته العسكرية والدموية ، متجاوزا كل المراحل السابقة ، لأن المعركة اليوم بالنسبة اليه ، هي الارض ، فإذا استطاع ان يبقي على دمشق وحلب ، حتى ولو مدمرتين ، عندها يستطيع أن يخول لروسيا التفاوض من موقع أقوى ، خاصة ان العالم يضغط في إتجاه التسوية على الطريقة اليمنية وعلى رأسهم الجامعة العربية .
على الرغم من بعض الاختلاف في التحليل في الصحافة الغربية والعربية  ، إلا أنها تجمع على إعتبار أن المعركة إنتقلت  الى مرحلة الحسم ، تمهيدا لتكوين السلطة في المرحلة المقبلة ، أي مرحلة ما بعد الاسد ، وبغض النظر عن الفترة التي ستستغرقها هذه المعركة ، والخسائر البشرية والمادية التي سيدفعها السوريون ، فإن سوريا دخلت في نفق لن تخرج منه إلا مهشمة على كافة المستويات ، وهي ستحتاج الى رعاية دولية لسنوات عديدة قبل ان تستعيد موقعها ودورها في المنطقة.
مرحلة تكوين السلطة بمعنى  ” أي سوريا ستكون ؟ ” هي النقطة الرئيسية اليوم ، وهو ما يركز عليه الاعلام الاسرائيلي ، المهتم حاليا بمتابعة الوضع السوري  ، إنطلاقا من الحدود الشمالية و في الجولان وضمان بقائها آمنة ، وهو ما بدا واضحا في الزيارات للمسؤولين الإسرائيليين ، والتصريحات التي حذروا فيها من إنتقال الاسلحة الجرثومية والكيمياوية السورية الى حزب الله ، وهو ما رد عليه المتحدث باسم الخارجية السورية جهاد مقدسي ، وقال إن الاسلحة في مكان آمن ، وهي لن تستعمل إلا للرد على إعتداء خارجي .
يبدو ان المشهد السوري إنتقل الى جزءه الدرامي الاخير ، وبغض النظر عن الوقت والثمن الذي سيدفع ، فإن حقبة قد طبعت اسم سوريا الاسد ، إنتهت ولن تعود ، حتى لو جرى التفاوض والتسوية السياسية وبأي شكل كانت ، سوريا تعيش اليوم مرحلة  نهاية  ” ممانعتها  ” مع خسارة المحور من إيران الى حزب الله وحماس مرورا بسوريا ، ومن المبكر الحديث عن بداية جديدة قبل ظهور مؤشرات واضحة لتكوين السلطة التي يبدو ان تسويتها لم تنضج خارجيا بعد .

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