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فوضى الإستقرار أم إستقرار الفوضى ؟

نجاة شرف الدين

لا يكاد يمر أسبوع في لبنان من دون أن تتصدر صفحات الصحف والمواقع الإلكترونية ووسائل الإعلام المرئية والمسموعة ، عناوين عن التوتر الأمني السياسي ، الذي تتوزع أحداثه في مختلف المناطق من الشمال الى الجنوب ، ومرورا بالبقاع وصولا الى جبل لبنان وحتى بيروت . هذه الأجواء التصعيدية ، والتي على الرغم من وصولها في كل مرة الى حافة الهاوية في إتجاه الإنفجار ، إلا أنه تدخل مساعي التهدئة في الربع الساعة الأخير لتنقذ الموقف ، ولكن من دون حلول جذرية وطويلة الأجل ، لتعود وتشتعل  شرارة أخرى في مكان آخر ، ومجددا تأتي تسويات اللحظة الأخيرة قبيل السقوط نحو الهاوية الأمنية ، فهل ما يحصل من فوضى هي السقف المسموح به  في هذه المرحلة على أن لا يصل الى الإنفجار ؟
في محاولة لقراءة المشهد اللبناني الأمني في المرحلة الأخيرة ، يبدو أن التوترات الحاصلة من عرسال ، والتي غابت مؤخراً عن المشهد الإعلامي نتيجة وجود أحداث أخرى ، وتبعها شمالا إطلاق النار اليومي على جبهتي باب التبانة وجبل محسن من جهة والحدود السورية اللبنانية ، لا سيما في وادي خالد في عكار وإستشهاد شخصين نتيجة القصف من الجانب السوري وسقوط جرحى  من جهة ثانية ، والمتزامنة مع الحركة الأسيرية ، من عبرا وإتهام الشيخ أحمد الأسير لحزب الله ، بتواجده في شقق قريبة من مكان إقامته ، ووجود سلاح ، ومن ثم إنتقاله الى وسط بيروت للإعتصام تضامنا مع الموقوفين الإسلاميين ، في ظل إجراءات أمنية مشددة من الأجهزة الأمنية اللبنانية ، وصولا الى تبادل القصف في منطقة القصير على الحدود اللبنانية السورية بين حزب الله والجيش السوري الحر ، وما بين كل هذه الأحداث مسلسل الخطف المستمر في العديد من المناطق ، مقابل فدية مالية .
هذا المشهد الأمني ، هل كان يمكن تجنب إنزلاقه لو لم يكن هناك من قرار سياسي ، خارجي وليس داخليا ؟ هذا السؤال يمكن تلمس الإجابة عليه من العديد من المؤشرات ، لا سيما التصاريح الصادرة من معظم الدول الغربية ، والتي ترافقت مع إندلاع الأحداث في سوريا منذ سنتين ، حيث أكد أكثر من مسؤول غربي ، وعلى رأسهم الولايات المتحدة على الإستقرار في لبنان ، وفي كل مرة يتم فيها خرق ما على الحدود اللبنانية السورية ، تطلق التصاريح على لسان الامم المتحدة ووزراء خارجية كبرى الدول للدعوة الى ضبط النفس والحفاظ على الإستقرار ، وليس أدل على ذلك سوى الزيارة الأخيرة التي قام بها وزير الخارجية البريطاني وليام هيغ ، الذي أكد بدوره على أهمية الإستقرار في لبنان ، وحمل رسالة الى الرؤساء الثلاثة من رئيس الوزراء البريطاني ديفيد كاميرون بدعم هذا الإستقرار عبر دعم الجيش اللبناني، كما قدم مساعدة للنازحين السوريين في لبنان ، علاوة على التعاون في مجال الطاقة عبر حضور هيغ شخصيا مع وزير الطاقة اللبناني من أجل  إطلاق أول عملية مسح بري للنفط عبر  شركة سبكتروم البريطانية ، وهو ما فسره المراقبون باهتمام غربي للإستقرار.
هذا الإهتمام من قبل المجتمع الدولي بالإستقرار في لبنان ، وعدم السماح بانتقال التوتر السوري الى الداخل اللبناني ، هل يمكن للبنان المحافظة عليه وتجنب إمتداده في لحظة “تخلي ” ، مع كل حالة الفلتان الأمني المتنقلة من منطقة الى أخرى ؟ وهل تكون عندها  هذه الفوضى الحاصلة  من ضمن سقف الإستقرار ؟ أم سيكون هذا الإستقرار محكوما بالفوضى ؟  …

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