الرئيسية » خاص «برس - نت» »

中国虚张声势对台演习 拙劣媒体战失败收场

Tsai Hsiao-Ying

中国国家主席习近平412日在南海举行中共建政以来最大规模海上阅兵,之后中国官媒就发布“海军南海军事训练提前结束,台海实弹演习即将开启”的新闻,一直到这几天的远海长航,过去这两週搭配媒体的持续作为,中国几乎是用尽心思,希望既对美国展现“中国不是好惹”的作势,更希望对台湾发挥心理震慑的效果。s

不过,台湾“自由时报”报导,从主要国家与台湾的反应来看,这是一场“看似华丽但失败的戏码”,重创北京国际形象。拉高观察的眼界,也会发现北京当局在区域间频仍的军事作为不但成为周边国家沉重的安全压力,在抗议下总是相应不理的蛮横形象,更引起相关国家的不耐与嫌恶。s

中国解放军十八日在福建泉州湾外海军演,中国官媒央视报导共军举行“跨昼夜海上实弹射击演练”,中媒环球时报更宣称这次火砲实弹射击,金门等地能清晰听到枪砲声不断。但台湾初步掌握的情资显示,央视的演训报导画面,已有眼尖军事迷发现,此画面为历史画面;目前更仅有机枪射击演练图片,和火砲射击规模相去甚远,未发现中国部队异常调动或大规模演训情形。中国所谓“实弹军演的真实性,尚有诸多疑点。s

台湾情资指出,中国利用国台办、中国驻美大使等发言,再透过中国鹰派官媒扩大渲染,目的在于台湾总统蔡英文出访时,打击总统出访效益,并扩大为对“台独”的针对性大规模军演,企图扩大朝野对立,分化台湾社会团结。s

自由时报报导,熟悉台湾国安的人士分析说,中国这波军事作为搭配讯息战的发动,中国军方的“环球时报”把一个营级地方部队的操演刻意加工为“台海实弹演习”,还在官方的央视拿过去军演记录片当新闻播,加上操着诡异腔调的“闽南语”的空军宣传片,都可看出中国正在尝试利用操作一系列的讯息战,打击台湾的民心士气。s

中国除透过媒体扩大武吓效应,更整合大数据及新媒体(文字图片、视频、动漫、虚拟实境等传播平台),对台实施“舆论战、心理战、法律战”,并以此作为未来反介入作战参考。s

这位人士表示,中国这些宣传作为,动机太鲜明,但手法太拙劣,也都犯了水土不服的毛病,一来是因为台湾民主化后,民众对于这种囯民党文工会式的政令宣导本来就免疫,甚至是持着保留与批判的态度来看待,本来就引人反感的内容,再配上怪腔怪调的闽南话,在台湾更成为网友讪笑的茶馀饭后话题。也足见民主自由本身,确实是台湾防御这类讯息战攻势的最好体质。s

他表示,中国这些宣传作为,动机太鲜明,但手法太拙劣;这种打不到心坎,却惹火一群人的没有灵魂的宣传,是中国这一次舆论战失败的主因。中共此次军演显有虚张声势之嫌;相关官员也强调,福建操演规模有限,无需大惊小怪。s

党政人士也指出,中国相关的演习本身就是例行演习,而且演习前都会透过公告的方式,告知民间演习警戒区的范围,但这次唯独特殊的地方就是中方刻意用官方媒体发布,而且隐藏部分资讯,显然是企图製造舆论。s

台湾政府其实一开始就很清楚这个中方的“套路”,这也是为何蔡英文日前召开国安高层会议时即做出提醒,呼吁台湾民众针对媒体平台上各项未经主管机关证实的国安相关讯息,切勿轻信或过度揣测,也要求主管机关也务必即时掌握,即时提供国人正确资讯。s

这一年来,世界各国对于“假讯息作战”,都已经视为重要国安问题。其中,民主国家因新闻、网路与言论自由的关係,资讯的流通相对不设防,导致有心人士更容易针对这部份操作。s

台湾社会并未因此陷入恐慌。反倒是包括美国国务院指责中方军事不透明的新闻立刻被发布出来。s

前美国在台协会主席卜睿哲分析认为,中国军演是对台湾的持续恐吓行动的一部分,中国可能也想藉此向美国发出警告。s

布鲁金斯研究所(Brookings Institution)东北亚研究中心主任的卜睿哲(Richard Bush)表示,中国军演本身并不构成对台湾的威胁,但若以鲁莽方式处理,可能引致意外。s

儘管如此,卜睿哲指出,中国军演是严肃的,这是中国对总统蔡英文政府持续恐吓行动的一部分,必须谨记,北京方面选择不和蔡政府建立信任关係。至于中国是否有意透过军演向华府发出警告,卜睿哲认为是有可能的。若是如此,美国总统特朗普政府将会如何回应,还有待观察。s

美国国际战略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)亚洲事务高级顾问葛来仪(Bonnie Glaser)则认为,南海军演“与其他东西相比,更像是一次海上阅兵”。s

但台湾海峡的军演是一个警告,”她补充说,演习的时间是一个有用的巧合,但并不是专门为这个特殊时刻计划的。美国和台湾被视为正在危险地朝着靠近中国红线的方向行进。这是中国人的看法。」s

纽约时报中文网报导,澳洲雪梨麦考瑞大学(Macquarie University)从事安全研究的讲师雪琳·(Sheryn Lee)认为,最近的一系列演习更多地是一种长期做法的延续,而不是军事活动的大幅升级。s

他们以前也进行过这样的演习,”她表示,经常提醒台湾他们在海峡对岸的存在。」s

南华早报则引述澳门国际军事会会长、中国军事科技活动中心成员黄东说,中国突然宣布在台湾海峡举行实弹军演,目的除了是向台北政府发出信息之外,而且还显示中国在俄罗斯与美国就叙利亚和其它问题发生摩擦之际,在地缘政治上向俄罗斯支持和示好。中国在台湾海峡举行军演,目的是表态支持中国的战略伙伴俄罗斯,试图将叙利亚的危机转移视线。在如此敏感的时刻,身为俄罗斯战略伙伴的中国,可能利用海军演习支持俄罗。s

美国国防部贸易安全政策前副次长布莱恩(Stephen Bryen)则于“亚洲时报”(Asia Times)撰文指出,为了因应中国在台海日益增加的威胁,美方应派出航空母舰绕行台湾,向中国领导人习近平释放明确的讯息:美国不仅视台湾为民主友邦,也是其西太平洋防卫的关键环节,让中国明白,美国航母战斗群就是台湾的保护盾。s

布莱恩表示,今年3月时,卡尔文森号航空母舰被派往越南,但他认为更应该要派去绕行台湾,因为这将让中国领导人了解美台之间的友谊,而且此举还能强化西太平洋防务。s

布莱恩说,台湾不仅位于第一岛链的中心,更毗邻琉球群岛和冲绳,而美国在冲绳岛上有嘉手纳空军基地,超过2万名美军及眷属在当地生活。s

但从去年以来,中国已在台湾周遭进行将近30次的军事演习,除了战机绕台之外,还让辽宁号航母舰队进入台湾海峡,更在该海域展开实弹演习。布莱恩认为,这已和1996年的台海飞弹危机十分类似。s

布莱恩指出,目前为止美国袖手旁观。假如台湾遭到中国打压,那麽日本将以前所未有的状况暴露于中国空权与海权压力下,美国在琉球群岛与日本其他地区的军事基地也会有危险。因此他强调,虽然派出卡尔文森号前往越南,是因为南海具有重要战略意义,但台湾无疑更为重要。s

布莱恩同时建议,美国必须以防御联盟的方式协助西太平洋盟友,以弥补中国力量不断增长的巨大差距。例如,美国必须迅速加强台湾的空军和海军能力,不久前的潜艇技术转让确实是朝着正确方向迈进,但中国也从欧洲获得的帮助,因此若让日本再向台湾提供更现代化的潜艇技术,那麽会让事情容易的多。s

布莱恩认为,日本如果有智慧,就会强化其防卫能力,并结合台湾在内的各股力量组成更有效率的联盟,以对抗中国的军政举动。s

布莱恩认为,中国正在测试美国会如何回应一连串的挑衅之举。中国的领导人可能认为,美方正忙着处理朝鲜局势,无暇他顾。俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)和叙利亚总统阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)正是基于这种心态,才会朝着杜马(Douma)发射化学武器,没有料到美国真的会採取军事行动。s

布莱恩认为,中国人可能以为美国总统特朗普 (Donald Trump)因官司等问题受伤累累,又或许他们以为川普必须靠中国才有办法与朝鲜达成有意义的协议。中国人可能以为美国最近在南海的自由航行之举,以及派遣航空母舰访问越南等行动,都只是作秀与爱面子,不是认真地反对中国佔领南海某些岛屿,或是力挺台湾和日本。s

布莱恩表示,真正的问题是:台湾被孤立于国际社会之外不但对台湾人有害,也对日本与美国有害。这个区域需要有真实的防卫联盟来抵挡中国的压力。这意味着美国必须协调其在本区域内的盟国,填补中国日益壮大后所造成的鸿沟。s

布莱恩表示,美国也必须快速强化台湾的空防与海防能力。美国转移潜舰技术给台湾,是正确的一步。但台湾潜舰国造起码得10年或更久,而中国却从欧洲得到柴油引擎和其他军事科技。如果美国帮助日本挺住来自中国的压力,让日本提供更新的潜舰技术给台湾,会更容易些。日本的潜舰技术起码与欧洲最好的产品可以相匹敌,甚至比欧洲的更好。s

布莱恩在结论时说,目前最快速的方法是派遣1艘美国航空母舰绕行台湾一圈。中国的国安单位、情治机关与军方将会清楚明白美国人的意思。s

台湾民主基金会则适时公布“2018台湾民主价值与治理”民调结果,民调显示:若中国武力犯台,不论认同、多愿为保台而战。s

中央研究院社会学研究所兼任研究员吴乃德指出,若中国武力攻台,愿意为保卫国家而战者,从民族认同来看,无论是认同台湾民族主义、中国民族主义者或是维持现状、双重认同者,都分别有84.2%55.5%73.3%69.8%。s

吴乃德指出,若中国以武力攻打台湾,愿意为保卫国家而战者的比例有73.7%,不愿意者为26.3%;若以年龄区分,愿意的比例,18-29岁有69.4%30-39岁的有71%40岁以上者则有75.1%;不愿意者,分别为30.6%29%24.9%。s

该份民调指出,以民族认同来区分,若中国以武力攻台,愿意为保卫国家而战的比例,中国民族主义者有55.5%、双重认同者有69.8%、维持现状者有73.3%、台湾民族主义者更是高达84.2%;反之,不愿意的部分,分别为44.5%30.2%26.7%15.8%。s

吴乃德说,在可见的未来,影响台湾政治、社会及经济最大的因素仍是中国,因此想透过民调,来了解在这麽大的中国影响下,台湾民众的主观态度为何,以及如何去看经济、看未来的前景、看社会及看政治。s

吴乃德指出,直觉会认为主张统一者较不想保卫台湾,想台独者会比较愿意抵抗中国侵略,但根据调查,认同中国民族主义者,仍有一半以上愿意保卫台湾,可能是因为希望保障台湾民主,或是希望要统一也是由自己决定,要保障台湾的自主权。s

اقرأ للكاتب نفس:

اُكتب تعليقك (Your comment):

صحافة اسرائيل

إعلان

خاص «برس - نت»

صفحة رأي

مدونات الكتاب

آخر التعليقات

    أخبار بووم على الفيسبوك

    تابعنا على تويتر

    Translate »
    We use cookies to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners.
    Cookies settings
    Accept
    Privacy & Cookie policy
    Privacy & Cookies policy
    Cookie name Active

    Privacy Policy

    What information do we collect?

    We collect information from you when you register on our site or place an order. When ordering or registering on our site, as appropriate, you may be asked to enter your: name, e-mail address or mailing address.

    What do we use your information for?

    Any of the information we collect from you may be used in one of the following ways: To personalize your experience (your information helps us to better respond to your individual needs) To improve our website (we continually strive to improve our website offerings based on the information and feedback we receive from you) To improve customer service (your information helps us to more effectively respond to your customer service requests and support needs) To process transactions Your information, whether public or private, will not be sold, exchanged, transferred, or given to any other company for any reason whatsoever, without your consent, other than for the express purpose of delivering the purchased product or service requested. To administer a contest, promotion, survey or other site feature To send periodic emails The email address you provide for order processing, will only be used to send you information and updates pertaining to your order.

    How do we protect your information?

    We implement a variety of security measures to maintain the safety of your personal information when you place an order or enter, submit, or access your personal information. We offer the use of a secure server. All supplied sensitive/credit information is transmitted via Secure Socket Layer (SSL) technology and then encrypted into our Payment gateway providers database only to be accessible by those authorized with special access rights to such systems, and are required to?keep the information confidential. After a transaction, your private information (credit cards, social security numbers, financials, etc.) will not be kept on file for more than 60 days.

    Do we use cookies?

    Yes (Cookies are small files that a site or its service provider transfers to your computers hard drive through your Web browser (if you allow) that enables the sites or service providers systems to recognize your browser and capture and remember certain information We use cookies to help us remember and process the items in your shopping cart, understand and save your preferences for future visits, keep track of advertisements and compile aggregate data about site traffic and site interaction so that we can offer better site experiences and tools in the future. We may contract with third-party service providers to assist us in better understanding our site visitors. These service providers are not permitted to use the information collected on our behalf except to help us conduct and improve our business. If you prefer, you can choose to have your computer warn you each time a cookie is being sent, or you can choose to turn off all cookies via your browser settings. Like most websites, if you turn your cookies off, some of our services may not function properly. However, you can still place orders by contacting customer service. Google Analytics We use Google Analytics on our sites for anonymous reporting of site usage and for advertising on the site. If you would like to opt-out of Google Analytics monitoring your behaviour on our sites please use this link (https://tools.google.com/dlpage/gaoptout/)

    Do we disclose any information to outside parties?

    We do not sell, trade, or otherwise transfer to outside parties your personally identifiable information. This does not include trusted third parties who assist us in operating our website, conducting our business, or servicing you, so long as those parties agree to keep this information confidential. We may also release your information when we believe release is appropriate to comply with the law, enforce our site policies, or protect ours or others rights, property, or safety. However, non-personally identifiable visitor information may be provided to other parties for marketing, advertising, or other uses.

    Registration

    The minimum information we need to register you is your name, email address and a password. We will ask you more questions for different services, including sales promotions. Unless we say otherwise, you have to answer all the registration questions. We may also ask some other, voluntary questions during registration for certain services (for example, professional networks) so we can gain a clearer understanding of who you are. This also allows us to personalise services for you. To assist us in our marketing, in addition to the data that you provide to us if you register, we may also obtain data from trusted third parties to help us understand what you might be interested in. This ‘profiling’ information is produced from a variety of sources, including publicly available data (such as the electoral roll) or from sources such as surveys and polls where you have given your permission for your data to be shared. You can choose not to have such data shared with the Guardian from these sources by logging into your account and changing the settings in the privacy section. After you have registered, and with your permission, we may send you emails we think may interest you. Newsletters may be personalised based on what you have been reading on theguardian.com. At any time you can decide not to receive these emails and will be able to ‘unsubscribe’. Logging in using social networking credentials If you log-in to our sites using a Facebook log-in, you are granting permission to Facebook to share your user details with us. This will include your name, email address, date of birth and location which will then be used to form a Guardian identity. You can also use your picture from Facebook as part of your profile. This will also allow us and Facebook to share your, networks, user ID and any other information you choose to share according to your Facebook account settings. If you remove the Guardian app from your Facebook settings, we will no longer have access to this information. If you log-in to our sites using a Google log-in, you grant permission to Google to share your user details with us. This will include your name, email address, date of birth, sex and location which we will then use to form a Guardian identity. You may use your picture from Google as part of your profile. This also allows us to share your networks, user ID and any other information you choose to share according to your Google account settings. If you remove the Guardian from your Google settings, we will no longer have access to this information. If you log-in to our sites using a twitter log-in, we receive your avatar (the small picture that appears next to your tweets) and twitter username.

    Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act Compliance

    We are in compliance with the requirements of COPPA (Childrens Online Privacy Protection Act), we do not collect any information from anyone under 13 years of age. Our website, products and services are all directed to people who are at least 13 years old or older.

    Updating your personal information

    We offer a ‘My details’ page (also known as Dashboard), where you can update your personal information at any time, and change your marketing preferences. You can get to this page from most pages on the site – simply click on the ‘My details’ link at the top of the screen when you are signed in.

    Online Privacy Policy Only

    This online privacy policy applies only to information collected through our website and not to information collected offline.

    Your Consent

    By using our site, you consent to our privacy policy.

    Changes to our Privacy Policy

    If we decide to change our privacy policy, we will post those changes on this page.
    Save settings
    Cookies settings